Modern Middle Manager
Primarily my musings on the practical application of technology and management principles at a financial services company.
2003 Predictions

Tuesday, December 31, 2002  

The end of the year would be incomplete without predictions. Below are my prognostications for 2003, first for my company, then for the IT industry at large.

My Company
1. End-users maintain the belief that computers are supernaturally complex and that training courses would only confuse them.
2. Senior management continues to get its business ideas from four-color glossy brochures.
3. Halfway through the year I will be expected to reduce my budget by 5%. Fortunately, it's the number I already had in mind when I created my budget.
4. Open source will represent 50% of the data center because the word "free" works magical effects upon management.
5. We finally roll out Windows 2000 and Office XP to the desktop, thus answering the question, "What do we do with all this spare computing power?"
6. A major external intrusion is attempted on our network. Fortunately we took the entire data center down that weekend for dusting and to color-coordinate patch wires.

The Industry
1. Microsoft purchases IDG, META Group and Gartner. All new research studies show that Linux is a carcinogen. Even second-hand.
2. DVD+RW capacities are increased to 25GB by Chinese pirate groups who promptly distribute the entire movie career of Christopher Lee.
3. The wireless Internet will be ubiquitous in major metropolitan areas. It, too, will be listed as a carcinogen by year-end.
4. A class-action lawsuit will be filed against Bill Gates for pain, suffering and mental distress inflicted upon individuals worldwide. Bill will win and file a counterclaim.
5. Scott McNealy will finally get his teeth fixed.
6. Larry Ellison will be chosen as North Korea's new stable, rational leader.
7. Customer relationship management (CRM) software will be merged with enterprise resource planning systems (ERP) and human resources information systems (HRIS) to make the ugliest abbreviation in existence. It will only be linked with heart disease and glaucoma.
8. Software patents will make all new development impossible, except in countries where patents are laughed off (see prediction #2).
9. Tort lawyers will continue to grow rich and will create books along the lines of, "Rich Lawyers, Poor Schlubs".

posted by Henry Jenkins | 12/31/2002 10:37:00 AM

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